Turkey-Russia: The inevitable clash of the titans

This is a reader comment that never made it past Al Jazeera's moderators. I attempted to post this and for two days while other comments appeared, including some with profanity, this never made it past Al Jazeera moderators. This reader comment has nothing so profound as to upset the government of Qatar, but in any case here it is. The original Opinion piece is Turkey-Russia: The inevitable clash of the titans.

While one could conclude the current belligerence as being sourced by the personal leadership of Turkey and Russia, this is the view at 1000 feet. At 50,000 feet the situation is rather different.

The Su-24 shoot down was an offensive political act, with a hypothetical spectrum of outcomes ranging from declarations of war to some back room deal, each with its calculated probable outcome. The actual result: Russia upped the ante, Syrian airspace in Russian control. It was only after the ante was jacked up that London decided to start bombing ISIS.

Obama and the Pentagon provided somewhat better than tepid support for the Turkish downing. This was entirely expected as anything less would prove lack of resolve for Washington's allies especially coming only days before Montenegro's NATO invitation. Ultimately, these are not the designs of local titans, just as the creation and nurturing of ISIS were not parochial actions.

Turkey won't blink first because it has more to lose than Russia, due to the depth of its institutions as suggested by the author. The stakes are not defined by an Ottoman revival or not. Bernard Lewis's rehash of Huntington's Clash of Civilizations was not a venture in historical determinism but rather a convenient blueprint.

Yerevan, Armenia

ISIS Fighters Returning to Azerbaijan Seen Creating Serious Problems for Baku

Having submitted a reader commentary on ISIS Fighters Returning to Azerbaijan Seen Creating Serious Problems for Baku on Paul Goble's blog, it soon became clear that no comments submitted are posted, even though I saw a "Your comment will be visible after approval". One need only view the scores of other postings to note the lack of comments. My comment is below:

An interesting overview. It seems Baku has itself a problem. Azerbaijani authorities are very good in incarcerating political and media opponents yet somehow allowed over 1500 jihadists to leave the country to destabilize Syria. This no doubt pleased their brothers in Ankara. The Baku Sultanate has to: eliminate these jihadists, face the possibility of plunging the country into an unwinnable war with Armenia or an internal conflict, prevent the formation of an insurgent alliance with other Caucasian jihadists just over its expansive northeastern border or any and all of the aforementioned. In addition, these 1500+ jihadists can easily enter the Azerbaijani-populated Marnueli and even Adjar regions of Georgia.

Given the amount of intensely bellicose anti-Armenian rhetoric that has been pumped into its people for almost a generation, Baku should have expected somebody might actually believe the propaganda. Perhaps Baku can ask its oft-noted strategic partner, Israel, to provide identification information on these 1500+ jihadists.

Azerbaijan once tried recruiting Chechen warriors and Afghan mujaheddin, among others including Ukrainians, to fight the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Chechen warriors walked away noting Azerbaijanis didn't want to fight. Shamil Basayev stated that he and his Chechen battalion had only been defeated once, and that came in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenians sent the Afghan mujaheddin back to Kabul in kafan shrouds.

For an ISIL cell(s) to exist in Azerbaijan, beyond the reach of its omnipotent security services, is somehow doubtful.

Yerevan, Armenia

Gaming Out Nagorno-Karabakh

I provided the following feedback on Stratfor's article, Gaming Out Nagorno-Karabakh. The article ends with "Send us your thoughts on this report.". I obliged them with:

I don't know who wrote your Gaming Out Nagorno-Karabakh article, but while appearing to be an analytic piece, in reality it accommodates what Azerbaijan demands and assumes that Azerbaijan has some kind of upper hand in events associated with Nagorno-Karabakh. You might recall Azerbaijan lost the right of sovereignty over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, notwithstanding having more fighters, foreign fighters, armament, and the support of powerful international oil investment structures.

While you suggest and generally state that Azerbaijan has some kind of intrinsic dominance in these affairs, I am sure you noted how yesterday Azerbaijan snipers killed three Armenian women – in Armenia proper – two of them very elderly, 84 and 90 years old. If soldiers killing old ladies at a distance is indicative of a strategic advantage I would suggest Strafor think again. What you perhaps didn't know is that the Armenian retaliation rendered the destruction of the Azerbaijani base and casualty count estimated on the order of 15:1. Perhaps Baku cares less about how many of their soldiers and civilians die, but Armenians do. This is not a “Game”.

I would suggest, rather than pleasing George Friedman and DC's Beltway with the tone of your analytic piece, you might give a moment of thought of the reaction to the quality of the risk analysis you undoubtedly provide your hydrocarbon-centric subscribers when Azerbaijan's transport pipelines are summarily destroyed in an escalation of hostilities. Armenia's rockets can also hit Baku's oil fields. Why these simple facts are ignored is telling. Ask yourself who would gain with the destruction of Azerbaijan's oil extraction and transport capabilities, and the tone of your analysis would change.

Yerevan, Armenia

‘To walk in an Islamic country and feel safe like I was in Tel Aviv was amazing'

The article in question,‘To walk in an Islamic country and feel safe like I was in Tel Aviv was amazing' appeared in the Jerusalem Post on September 20, 2015. The following reader comment was never posted. Even though it was posted via Disqus, and JPost states that Disqus reader comments are automatically posted, it never saw the light of day.

David Davidian • a few seconds ago Hold on, this is waiting to be approved by The Jerusalem Post.

Jpost made an interesting juxtaposition – on the same web page – of the corruption associated with MK Hazan and his visit to Azerbaijan. Maybe Hazan is looking for a new job. He would be in good company considering Azerbaijani president Aliyev was designated “Corrupt Person of the Year”. See: http://www.rferl.org/content/a....

I also note with interest that in the Azerbaijani press, Hazan's Baku visit was associated with an announcement by both Oran Hazan and Mendi Safadi of coordinated action to help Azerbaiian in its PR war against Armenia and Armenians, something that Jpost didn't state. In any case, such efforts have already begun and seen in various English-language sites.

One would think the Israel Knesset and any associated lobbies in the US have more important issues to address than to engage in unnecessary anti-Armenian rhetoric.

Yerevan, Armenia

Nakhchivan: Its Splendid Architecture Reflected In Bridges And Fortresses – OpEd

Even though EurasiaReview has an area for reader comments, almost none have ever appeared, certainly none of mine. So, I don't bother to wasting keystrokes. An article, dated July 20, 2015 and posted on EurasiaReview entitled, Nakhchivan: Its Splendid Architecture Reflected In Bridges And Fortresses – OpEd requires a response. Its author expects his readership to assume that Nakhichevan is some natural wonder that Azerbaijani culture has created. The author tries to accomplish this by the selective deletion of facts. Let's take a look at one BIG fact missing.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science published a study, updated July 17, 2015, showing clear proof that Azerbaijani authorities destroy Armenian cemeteries in Nakhichevan, the last known major cultural destruction took place in December 2005. I would have my readers look at High-Resolution Satellite Imagery and the Destruction of Cultural Artifacts in Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan

If that is not good enough, perhaps a live video of Azerbaijanis destroying the Armenian culture of Nakhichevan. See: Azeri soldiers destroying Armenian Khachkars at Armenian cemetery Based on clear actions directed by the government of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani culture is typified by the elimination of the culture of others and calling what remains Azerbaijani.

Yerevan, Armenia

First east Ukraine, and now Armenia

This reader comment was not posted by Today's Zaman, June 26, 2015, regarding an article First east Ukraine, and now Armenia

David Davidian • a minute ago Hold on, this is waiting to be approved by Today's Zaman.

One item that never seems to be noted by reporters and analysts is that at the first sign of destabilization in Armenia, Azerbaijan will attack Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia with full fury, without waiting for Moscow's approval. Armenians know this well. This protest is over simple thievery! Even in this article there no mention of Azerbaijan or Karabakh, but the word Ukraine is mentioned 17 times!

Yerevan, Armenia

Europe’s Caspian gas dreams – a nightmare come true for human rights in Azerbaijan

Several days ago I posted a reader comment on article, Europe’s Caspian gas dreams – a nightmare come true for human rights in Azerbaijan. After several days the comment us still under moderation. Perhaps commentary was restricted due to the subject.

Here is that reader comment:

David Davidian says: May 18, 2015 at 4:30 pm

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

If Azerbaijan is an embarrassment to the EU, what difference does it make. Nobody is holding their breath waiting for BP and others to sell their interest in the BTC pipeline simply due to HR conditions in sovereign Azerbaijan. Apparently, Azerbaijan is not as bad as Nigeria, yet.

Easily predicted HR and oligarchic corruption were “non- issues” when the BTC and Southern Caucasus pipelines were being proposed, built, and as hydrocarbons began flowing to key customers. Now Azerbaijan is a nightmare? Is this hypocritical, probably, but this doesn’t make any difference either. NATO, EBRD and EIB representatives still flock to Baku, some bestowing praise, others bringing loans! All carrots. Perhaps Baku’s HR issues will magically disappear when it’s time to re-negotiate energy contracts.

Yerevan, Armenia

Today's Zaman: Armenia’s oligarchy in trouble

My comment regarding: Armenia’s oligarchy in trouble

David Davidian • a few seconds ago Hold on, this is waiting to be approved by Today's Zaman.

Everything is relative -- Armenia has its oligarchs and Turkey its megalomaniacs. The level of corruption in Turkey's construction industry alone makes Erdoğan's thousand room palace look inconsequential.

Yerevan, Armenia

Вестник Кавказа: Спорный геноцид. Армяне в Османской империи в XIX веке Vestnik Kavkaza: A Disputed Genocide. Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during the Nineteenth Century

I tried commenting on A Disputed Genocide. Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during the Nineteenth Century as posted on Vestnik Kavkaza. I discovered that the Azerbaijani-centric Vestnik Kavkaza, purposely pushes comments on "selected topics" to a totally different article in a different section. Since off-topic, it would never be approved. In my case it was to be posted under Iranian business enters Turkmenistan. What a nice trick. So, I have posted my comment here:


David Davidian • 5 minutes ago Hold on, this is waiting to be approved by Vestnik Kavkaza.

Vestnik Kavkaza is providing a disservice to its readership by blindly posting chapters from a known genocide denier, Guenter Lewy. Clearly, the choice of posting his work was not random as his text also appears on the Foreign Ministry of Turkey's web site

Lewy also claims Native Americans were not subject to genocide and would have us believe the only real genocide was the Holocaust.

We must conclude that Vestnik Kavkaza is not interested in the objectivity of the articles on its site.

Yerevan, Armenia

Today's Zaman: Armenian Oligarchy in Trouble

My comment regarding: Armenia’s oligarchy in trouble

was never published by Today's Zaman David Davidian • a few seconds ago Hold on, this is waiting to be approved by Today's Zaman.

Everything is relative -- Armenia has its oligarchs and Turkey its megalomaniacs. The level of corruption in Turkey's construction industry alone makes Erdoğan's thousand room palace look inconsequential.

Yerevan, Armenia

Times of Israel: A Day When Peace Was Born

My comment regarding an article in the Times of Israel, A Day When Peace Was Born:

It is indeed sad how with Azerbaijan being Israel's largest oil supplier and Israel Azerbaijan's second largest arms supplier -- arms that will be used to kill Armenians, again – how politics trumps any regard for the truth and context. So, would a somber tribute to the massacre in Deir Yassin also be appropriate?

Yerevan, Armenia

...was posted, then disappeared after an hour or so.

STRATFOR - Belarus and Armenia Re-Evaluate Relations with Russia

STRATFOR claims in report, Belarus and Armenia Re-Evaluate Relations with Russia, "and on Jan. 27 Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian admitted that the helicopter that was shot down had deviated from its course and said that officials were dismissed as a result." STRATFOR asks for feedback comments (internal only) in association with their reports. I submitted the following comment:

STRATFOR wrote, "Seyran Ohanian admitted that the helicopter that was shot down had deviated from its course and said that officials were dismissed as a result." Clearly, I have not read everything that exists in print and in every language, but I would like to see a reference for this as I have not even heard even a rumor of such an admission. Is this claim from an Azerbaijani source?

I live in Yerevan, Armenia.

Let's see what STRATFOR responds with, if anything.

The Guardian published an article, Jewish leaders call for Europe-wide legislation outlawing antisemitism

On January 26, 2015 The Guardian published an article, Jewish leaders call for Europe-wide legislation outlawing antisemitism

In that article it stated:

"The yardstick, say the drafters, should be that if an international tribunal has ruled genocide has taken place, it should be accepted everywhere in Europe as criminal conduct to contest that in public. The Holocaust, the Rwanda genocide, and the mass murder of Muslims by Serbs in Srebrenica, Bosnia, in 1995 would be covered. The Turkish massacre of Armenians in 1915, for example, would not be covered."

This article was subsequently picked by at least two other outlets: http://www.wpxnews.com/business/jewish-leaders-contact-for-europe-wide-legislation-outlawing-antisemitism-h6938.html and http://www.uniongazette.com/business/jewish-leaders-get-in-touch-with-for-europe-wide-legislation-outlawing-antisemitism-h15659.html

I posted the same reader comment text to both sites:

d.davidian

Apparently, Jewish leaders specifically reject the genocide of the Armenian as not worthy. Raphael Lemkin specifically highlighted the Turkish genocide of the Armenians when his coined the term genocide. What kind of anti-Armenian legislation is this! Frankly, it is an outrage!

Yerevan, Armenia

Later on in the day both of these non-Guardian sites pulled the article. What remains is the original Guardian article, providing no reader comments

Armenia can't count on Russia any more

Al Jazeera refused to post my reader comment (twice attempted, 24 hrs apart) on an Opinion piece they published. I am posting that reader comment here, using the same title as the original article: Armenia can't count on Russia any more. Sending feedback to Al Jazeera asking what possible reason this comment wasn't posted resulted in a standard template reply. Below is my comment:

David Davidian
Your comment is awaiting moderation
The title of this article is in contrast with its content. Little of the content provides evidence that Armenia cannot count on Russia. Clearly, there are issues with operations at the Gyumri base and legal jurisdiction overall, brought to the surface through the horrible murder of an entire family. None of this demonstrates to Armenia that Russia cannot live up to its agreements, which are far reaching.

It is sometimes easy to become complacent. Russia operates Armenia's nuclear plant providing almost half of the county's electrical power, it supplies gas so cheaply that the vast majority of vehicles in Armenia have converted from gasoline to gas. This list goes on. The part of this list that doesn't get much notice is that every morning Armenians wake up to another day of peace, enough so that enterprises such as the author's think tank can write these opinion pieces. This only comes from the Russian military patrolling the Turkish-Armenian border. Turkey has made direct military moves across many of its other borders, but has not threatened its Armenian border. This is no accident. If there is an equal or better replacement for this condition, we would all love to see its plan and execution.

Yerevan, Armenia